It was a US election no one wanted. Two old and unpopular candidates slogging it out once again. But June’s presidential debate changed that. After weeks of wrangling, Biden’s poor performance ultimately cost him the Democratic nomination. Insurmountable pressure from his own party forced his hand over the weekend.
Meanwhile Trump’s July has been as triumphant as Biden’s was miserable. He showed unprecedented discipline as Biden suffered the consequences of his visible incoherence. Resisting his natural urge to taunt, it kept the media spotlight on Biden and his incapacity to govern for another four years.
And then came the events of 13th July that might prove definitive in this US election: the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Saved by an innocuous head tilt, Thomas Matthew Crooks’ missed shot produced only an abiding image of the former president as strong and defiant. “Fight! Fight! Fight!” a bloodied Trump shouted, raising his first to the crowd as he was helped back to his feet by his secret service detail.
Trump’s shifting vibes
Kamala Harris’ odds are somewhat shorter than the outgoing candidate she’s likely to replace in November’s US election. But Donald Trump is now the clear favourite. When we predicted his likely victory in January, much of the political class was still loath to accept this probability. Horrified commentators believed legal troubles would derail him or improving economic data would buoy Biden.
But Trump’s likely return to the White House is gaining acceptance. Tyler Cowen described this very aptly as “changes in vibes”. He poses the question:
Trump was a highly vulnerable, defeated President, facing numerous legal charges and indeed an actual felony conviction. Yet he now stands as a clear favourite in the next election. In conceptual terms, how exactly did that happen?
Cowen lists a series of bullet points to explain this transformation. Among these, Democrats’ commitment to the Diversity & Inclusion (read “woke”) agenda and Trump’s genuine comedic abilities shouldn’t be underestimated as simple yet convincing contributions. But there’s been an even more radical change than Cowen posits. Trump is suddenly considered a serious political operator. He’s become a figure of gravitas and policy. How did that happen?
Sheepish Democrats
Sleepy Joe was once a figment of Trump’s colourful imagination. Any serious DC operative would tell you Biden was as sharp as ever. Pliant journalists wrote that concerning social media clips were taken out of context. Democrats refused to engage with questions about Biden’s mental aptitude. Anyone speculating about it was of course guilty of misinformation.
Biden’s stammer and gaffe-prone tendencies were put forward as excuses for strange behaviours. Or aides attempted to deflect attention, pointing to Trump’s own advancing years and wondering aloud about instances of senility. But their efforts were undermined by what the public could see for itself. Biden was clearly a shadow of his former self while Trump was still the same errant yet charismatic orator of 2016 and 2020.
Democrats were ultimately forced to concede that Biden was unfit to contest the US election. It’s an embarrassing and awkward situation for the party. For eight years, they’ve accused Republicans of loose morals in abandoning the party to Trumpism. Figures like J.D. Vance, once so critical of Trump, has fallen into line for a shot at power. So Biden apparatchiks now look like hypocrites. They too put political self-interest above the country.
Tech bros
As Democrats’ attacks are blunted, Trump has secured a new wave of support. The tech bros are onside. Many see the influence of Peter Thiel as his acolyte J.D. Vance secured his place on the 2024 ticket. In some ways, Big Tech is a natural ally. Cowen highlights Democrats’ mistaken chastisement of Facebook et al. as they sought a scapegoat for Trump’s 2016 victory.
But it’s also traditionally an “elite” grouping: Ivy League educated and internationalist in their outlook. So it’s a fortuitous and perhaps brief meeting of ideals that brings MAGA and Silicon Valley together. America First may cause trading frictions but it seeks to avoid international conflicts. Its positive language around realpolitik resonates with a community that doesn’t wish to ostracise potential markets.
Just look at new Trump devotee Elon Musk speaking about China and Taiwan.
Musk’s increasingly conservative inclinations have long been apparent. (Although he would argue the centre-ground has moved left). But Walter Isaacson’s recent biography of X’s owner claims Musk thinks Trump is a “con-man”, “kind of nuts” and “the world champion of bullsh*t”. So it’s something of a volte face to see him swing so keenly behind the former President in the US election.
Even Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has expressed tepid support for Trump while stopping short of a full endorsement. He told Bloomberg’s Emily Chang that his response to getting shot was “badass” and inspiring.
Trump is winning support from an economically powerful class. But also one that helps his image in a different social milieu. Socially liberal voters see their own tribe fed up with the woke politics and weak policing that have decimated areas of Silicon Valley. Suddenly Trump is an acceptable option in the US election.
Republican consolidation
While these endorsements widen his appeal, Trump has also consolidated support with the Republican base. Earlier this year, primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire suggested this was rocky. Half of voters opted for Haley or DeSantis instead. A significant proportion of these Republicans said they would not vote for Trump in November.
But the mood at last week’s Republican National Convention tells a different story. The assassination attempt has brought religious fervour to Trump’s candidacy. Marjorie Taylor Greene even witnessed God’s providence in the angel who saved Donald Trump’s life that day.
For less zealous supporters, there are more practical bits of comfort. Biden’s disintegration has made Trump look like a winner and brought the tantalising possibility of a GOP sweep: House, Senate and White House. Even Nikki Haley, enduring a mixed reception, was moved to fully endorse Trump’s US election bid.
And in J.D. Vance, Republicans see a strategy that was lacking in Trump’s less disciplined 2016 and 2020 bids. Representing a clear break with the neoliberalism of Reagan’s party, Vance nonetheless represents a serious policy platform of economic nationalism and traditional values. Elbridge Colby’s foreign policy platform provides rigour abroad. And K.T. McFarland praises the new drilling measures that will secure America’s energy security.
Peaked too soon?
It’s been a magnificent summer for Donald Trump thus far. Commentators now talk seriously and expectantly about him as the next president.
But has it all come too soon? Harris’ nomination as his new opponent looks assured as Democrats quickly rally around Biden’s VP. For once, it’s the Democrats facing low expectations. It’s all upside for Kamala Harris. And she still has a surprise hand to play with her own VP pick. Democrat strategist Alec Ross intriguingly suggests Mark Cuban…
With over three months still to go, could there be a final dramatic turn?
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